Review of William Gates III, THE ROAD AHEAD
Viking/Penguin, 1995, $29.95  With N. Myhrvold and
P. Rinearson.  286pp.


Bill Gates, the new commentator on the recent past and future of the
information industry, is not merely a journalist or popularizer.  He is the
historical figure in computing today.  A book of this kind belongs at least
with Alfred Sloan's writings, perhaps even Frank Lloyd Wright's ruminations,
if not with the reflections of serious thinkers who, like Gates, found
themselves in command of their moment.  Gates is aware of the import.  He is
able to extract timeless ideas from mundane events.  He is careful to keep his
prose simple and clear.  THE ROAD AHEAD is not deep.  It is so accessible that
it has a cleverness (the same might be said of his early software produce).

Gates shows his authority in business and in computing when he dismisses
issues that paralyze other authors.  On information glut:  "Information
overload is not unique to the highway, and it needn't be a problem." (p.
79)  On cyber-porn:  "Sexually explicit content is as old as information
itself.  It never takes long to figure out how to apply any new
technology to the oldest desire.  [But as the market for each technology
grew] explicit material became a smaller and smaller factor."  (p. 133) On
virtual meetings: "Some people worry [about] eliminating the subtlety of human
dynamics in a meeting ... .  Over time, ... new rules of meeting etiquette
will emerge."  (pp. 150-151) Gates has been to too many product-development
meetings, perhaps, to realize the silliness of some of his future gadgets.
But his book is fresh with first-hand facts where mostly there has been
futuristic gossip.

The popular criticism has been that Gates's vision is not as fine as Nicholas
Negroponte's BEING DIGITAL, not as fantastic as Howard Rheingold's VIRTUAL
REALITY, not even as intimate as Sherry Turkle's LIFE ON SCREEN.  

Comparison to the other best-sellers, however, misses the point.  Gates's
measure is a personal one.

Gates's stake in this book is nothing less than the future of
Microsoft.  He is nearly explicit about it, lest the insightful reader who
discovers it alone feel manipulated.  The success of technologies depends to
some extent on convention and standardization.  The "upward spiral" of
popularity, explains Gates, turned Microsoft's BASIC into Microsoft's empire.
Now, the unpopularity of Microsoft's business practices, its low technology
mandates, the anarchy of the Internet, and the public resentment at his
fortune all threaten a "downward spiral".  The problem is not simply that some
people will buy their autos from GM instead of Ford.  The risk, in computers
and communications, is that the market will shift standards, like shifting
electrical outlets from 120V to 240V, from PC-based computing to Web-based
applets.  In a different business, if consumers dislike for example Disney's
high-profile Michael Eisner, they can avoid Disney products, and the products
will continue with reduced market share.  If consumers dislike Bill Gates,
there is no such thing as reduced market share for Windows NT.  The standard
will shift.  Gates admits that Microsoft has been selling a standard.

For years, the best people in computer systems have expressed nothing
but bitterness toward Microsoft.  Their revilement has been greater 
than what one once heard against IBM and AT&T.  Maybe the worst thing that
could happen to Microsoft is the finality of Apple Computer's demise,
which would be proof that Microsoft's empire was indeed evil.

THE ROAD AHEAD is a campaign against that bitterness.  Annie Leibovitz's
cover photo makes Bill radiant and lovable.  Gates chooses co-authors
whom none could despise, donates the profits to education, and
packages the book with a free CD-ROM.  He speaks optimistically to the
readers as his friends, whom he tells self-effacing stories of his
childhood, whom he welcomes into the policy discussions for shaping the
information future, whom he invites into his house ("If you come to
visit, you'll drive down a gently winding driveway ..." p. 216).  He
praises Apple.  (p. 54) He apologizes for dropping out of Harvard.  (p.
18)

At the end, THE ROAD AHEAD is a success for Gates.  The press reviews
were largely negative, but most who read the book will start to like the
man (or at least not hate him).  Without MS-DOS, we might still be stuck
with hobbyist machines like the Altair, worrying about EPROMs and
motherboards.  Without Windows, our operating systems royalties might be
on their way to Japan.

Gates is like the Mayan chief who, even as dictator, must cut himself to
regain his public's mandate.  He is painfully honest about his position:
"Death can come swiftly to a market leader." (p. 64)  "... Consumers
will ultimately decide [who will] succeed.  ... The first competition
...  will be waged for the hearts and minds ... ." (p. 90)


Ronald Loui

Ronald Loui is Associate Professor of Computer Science at
Washington University.